Book Chapter · European Unity: From Maastricht to Modern Union · 2024
Serbia and Montenegro have both pursued European Union membership since being recognized as potential candidate countries at the Thessaloniki European Council Summit in 2003. Although the two countries share a common historical and regional background, their accession processes have progressed at different speeds and they face different political, institutional, and economic challenges.
This research comparatively examines the accession prospects of Serbia and Montenegro by assessing their progress in the European Union accession negotiations. Particular attention is given to the negotiating chapters and clusters, the Copenhagen criteria for EU membership, and the Maastricht convergence criteria associated with participation in the European Monetary Union.
The analysis also considers political commitment to European integration, public attitudes toward EU membership, economic preparedness, institutional reform, and country-specific political challenges. Montenegro represents a particularly distinctive case because it adopted the euro unilaterally in 2002, meaning that its economic and monetary integration raises additional questions within the accession process.
The study finds important differences between the two candidates. Montenegro had progressed further in the negotiation process and demonstrated comparatively greater preparedness, although political instability and institutional weaknesses remained significant obstacles. Serbia also made progress, particularly in certain economic criteria, but continued to face challenges related to the rule of law, implementation of reforms, foreign-policy alignment, and the unresolved relationship with Kosovo.
Based on these differences, the research argues that the two countries should be evaluated according to their individual progress rather than being treated as a single accession package.
Keywords: European Union Enlargement · Serbia · Montenegro · EU Accession · Copenhagen Criteria · Maastricht Criteria · Western Balkans
Csiszár, C. (2024). “Jointly or Separately: A Comparative Analysis of the Accession Prospects of Serbia and Montenegro.” In B. Ferkelt & M. Nagy (Eds.), European Unity: From Maastricht to Modern Union . Aposztróf, Budapest, pp. 160–182.
How do Serbia and Montenegro compare in their progress toward European Union membership, and should their future accession be considered jointly or separately?
The research examines differences in political, institutional, and economic preparedness in order to evaluate the accession prospects of both countries.
The research brings together several dimensions of EU accession that are often considered separately by comparing progress in negotiating chapters, the Copenhagen criteria, and the Maastricht criteria within a single framework.
The analysis additionally incorporates political commitment and public attitudes toward EU membership, providing a broader assessment of accession readiness than economic indicators alone.
Montenegro had progressed further in the accession negotiations and appeared comparatively closer to EU membership, although political volatility and institutional reform remained important challenges.
Serbia faced greater obstacles, particularly concerning the Copenhagen criteria, implementation of reforms, foreign-policy alignment, and the unresolved Kosovo issue. The study therefore supported a separate accession approach.
The research uses a comparative analytical approach to evaluate the European Union accession preparedness of Serbia and Montenegro. Rather than relying on a single indicator, the study examines several dimensions of the accession process and compares the two countries across a common analytical framework.
First, the analysis evaluates progress in the formal EU accession negotiations, including the six clusters and the thirty-five negotiating chapters. The number and status of opened and provisionally closed chapters are used to assess the institutional progress of each candidate country.
Second, both countries are assessed according to the Copenhagen criteria, including political stability, democracy, the rule of law, human rights, functioning market-economy conditions, and the capacity to implement the obligations associated with EU membership.
Third, the study considers the Maastricht convergence criteria, including inflation, fiscal conditions, exchange-rate developments, and monetary-policy considerations. This comparison is particularly relevant for Montenegro because the country has used the euro as its de facto currency since 2002 despite not being a member of the European Union or the euro area.
The analysis draws primarily on reports and assessments from European institutions, including the European Commission, European Council and other official EU sources, alongside information from the central banks and statistical institutions of Serbia and Montenegro.
Macroeconomic indicators and institutional developments are examined together with broader political factors, including domestic political stability, foreign-policy orientation, implementation of EU recommendations, and relations with neighbouring countries.
Finally, public opinion toward European integration and the political commitment of national governments are considered because accession ultimately requires both institutional preparedness and sufficient political and societal support.
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